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Survey of data assimilation methods for convective-scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres

Gustafsson, N.; T. Janjic; C. Schraff; D. Leuenberger; M. Weissmann; H. Reich; P. Brousseau; T. Montmerle; E. Wattrelot; A. Bucanek; M. Mile; R. Hamdi; M. Lindskog; J. Barkmeijer; M. Dahlbom; B. Macpherson; S. Ballard; G. Inverarity; J. Carley; C. Al – 2018

Data assimilation (DA) methods for convective‐scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres are surveyed. The operational methods include variational methods (3D‐Var and 4D‐Var), ensemble methods (LETKF) and hybrids between variational and ensemble methods (3DEnVar and 4DEnVar). At several operational centres, other assimilation algorithms, like latent heat nudging, are additionally applied to improve the model initial state, with emphasis on convective scales. It is demonstrated that the quality of forecasts based on initial data from convective‐scale DA is significantly better than the quality of forecasts from simple downscaling of larger‐scale initial data. However, the duration of positive impact depends on the weather situation, the size of the computational domain and the data that are assimilated. Furthermore it is shown that more advanced methods applied at convective scales provide improvements over simpler methods. This motivates continued research and development in convective‐scale DA. Challenges in research and development for improvements of convective‐scale DA are also reviewed and discussed. The difficulty of handling the wide range of spatial and temporal scales makes development of multi‐scale assimilation methods and space–time covariance localization techniques important. Improved utilization of observations is also important. In order to extract more information from existing observing systems of convective‐scale phenomena (e.g. weather radar data and satellite image data), it is necessary to provide improved statistical descriptions of the observation errors associated with these observations.

Titel
Survey of data assimilation methods for convective-scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres
Verfasser
Gustafsson, N.; T. Janjic; C. Schraff; D. Leuenberger; M. Weissmann; H. Reich; P. Brousseau; T. Montmerle; E. Wattrelot; A. Bucanek; M. Mile; R. Hamdi; M. Lindskog; J. Barkmeijer; M. Dahlbom; B. Macpherson; S. Ballard; G. Inverarity; J. Carley; C. Al
Schlagwörter
convective-scale, data assimilation, numerical weather prediction
Datum
2018
Kennung
doi:10.1002/qj.3179
Quelle/n
Erschienen in
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2018
BibTeX Code
@article{Gustafsson2018,
author = {Gustafsson, N. and Janjić, T. and Schraff, C. and Leuenberger, D. and Weissmann, M. and Reich, H. and Brousseau, P. and Montmerle, T. and Wattrelot, E. and Bucanek, A. and Mile, M. and Hamdi, R. and Lindskog, M. and Barkmeijer, J. and Dahlbom, M. and Macpherson, B. and Ballard, S. and Inverarity, G. and Carley, J. and Alexander, C. and Dowell, D. and Liu, S. and Ikuta, Y. and Fujita, T.},
title = {Survey of data assimilation methods for convective-scale numerical weather prediction at operational centres},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
volume = {144},
number = {713},
pages = {1218-1256},
year = {2018}
}